World Cup 2026 Qualification Scenarios

If Group A ended on the current table, Mexico and Korea Republic would hold the automatic places and Czechia would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

If Group B ended on the current table, Switzerland and Canada would hold the automatic places and Bosnia and Herzegovina would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

If Group C ended on the current table, Scotland and Brazil would hold the automatic places and Morocco would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

If Group D ended on the current table, USA and Australia would hold the automatic places and Turkiye would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

If Group E ended on the current table, Germany and Ecuador would hold the automatic places and Cote d'Ivoire would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

If Group F ended on the current table, Netherlands and Japan would hold the automatic places and Sweden would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

If Group G ended on the current table, Belgium and IR Iran would hold the automatic places and Egypt would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

If Group H ended on the current table, Spain and Uruguay would hold the automatic places and Saudi Arabia would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

If Group I ended on the current table, France and Senegal would hold the automatic places and Norway would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

If Group J ended on the current table, Argentina and Austria would hold the automatic places and Algeria would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

If Group K ended on the current table, Portugal and Colombia would hold the automatic places and Congo DR would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

If Group L ended on the current table, England and Croatia would hold the automatic places and Ghana would sit on the best-third-place bubble. The group is still best read as a scenario board until all six matches are complete.

USA

Group D · 75% model odds to qualify

Mexico

Group A · 82% model odds to qualify

Canada

Group B · 72% model odds to qualify

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group B · 59% model odds to qualify

Korea Republic

Group A · 73% model odds to qualify

South Africa

Group A · 47% model odds to qualify

Mexico

Group A · currently #1 · 82% to reach the round of 32

South Africa

Group A · currently #4 · 47% to reach the round of 32

Korea Republic

Group A · currently #2 · 73% to reach the round of 32

Czechia

Group A · currently #3 · 71% to reach the round of 32

Canada

Group B · currently #2 · 72% to reach the round of 32

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group B · currently #3 · 59% to reach the round of 32

Qatar

Group B · currently #4 · 55% to reach the round of 32

Switzerland

Group B · currently #1 · 85% to reach the round of 32

Brazil

Group C · currently #2 · 96% to reach the round of 32

Morocco

Group C · currently #3 · 85% to reach the round of 32

Haiti

Group C · currently #4 · 20% to reach the round of 32

Scotland

Group C · currently #1 · 64% to reach the round of 32

USA

Group D · currently #1 · 75% to reach the round of 32

Paraguay

Group D · currently #4 · 60% to reach the round of 32

Australia

Group D · currently #2 · 62% to reach the round of 32

Turkiye

Group D · currently #3 · 75% to reach the round of 32

Germany

Group E · currently #1 · 93% to reach the round of 32

Curacao

Group E · currently #4 · 20% to reach the round of 32

Cote d'Ivoire

Group E · currently #3 · 74% to reach the round of 32

Ecuador

Group E · currently #2 · 81% to reach the round of 32

Netherlands

Group F · currently #1 · 91% to reach the round of 32

Japan

Group F · currently #2 · 78% to reach the round of 32

Sweden

Group F · currently #3 · 54% to reach the round of 32

Tunisia

Group F · currently #4 · 45% to reach the round of 32

Belgium

Group G · currently #1 · 92% to reach the round of 32

Egypt

Group G · currently #3 · 72% to reach the round of 32

IR Iran

Group G · currently #2 · 76% to reach the round of 32

New Zealand

Group G · currently #4 · 29% to reach the round of 32

Spain

Group H · currently #1 · 99% to reach the round of 32

Cabo Verde

Group H · currently #4 · 29% to reach the round of 32

Saudi Arabia

Group H · currently #3 · 41% to reach the round of 32

Uruguay

Group H · currently #2 · 86% to reach the round of 32

France

Group I · currently #1 · 95% to reach the round of 32

Senegal

Group I · currently #2 · 73% to reach the round of 32

Iraq

Group I · currently #4 · 33% to reach the round of 32

Norway

Group I · currently #3 · 67% to reach the round of 32

Argentina

Group J · currently #1 · 98% to reach the round of 32

Algeria

Group J · currently #3 · 64% to reach the round of 32

Austria

Group J · currently #2 · 74% to reach the round of 32

Jordan

Group J · currently #4 · 25% to reach the round of 32

Portugal

Group K · currently #1 · 92% to reach the round of 32

Congo DR

Group K · currently #3 · 50% to reach the round of 32

Uzbekistan

Group K · currently #4 · 43% to reach the round of 32

Colombia

Group K · currently #2 · 82% to reach the round of 32

England

Group L · currently #1 · 94% to reach the round of 32

Croatia

Group L · currently #2 · 83% to reach the round of 32

Ghana

Group L · currently #3 · 53% to reach the round of 32

Panama

Group L · currently #4 · 36% to reach the round of 32